2010 FIFA World Cup - Final - Netherlands-Spain 0-1
So what's the future of the Dutch team...

Monday, 12 July 2010

Yesterday Holland lost the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa. They were beat by Spain, 1-0. It was justified, it was okay, and it hurts. Yet we've seen Holland play a successful World Cup, and in spite of all the criticism that the team now receives (too rough, too boring) Holland went further than 30 of the other 31 nations that started.

But that's in the past. Now what is the future of this team and of Dutch football? Well, the future for this team isn't hard to outline, but the long term is very unclear as no real big talents seem to be standing in line.

Replace Van Bommel and Kuyt?
Some players of this team are quitting international football (Van Bronckhorst, Ooijer, Boschker) and others (Van Bommel, Kuyt) are reaching an age in which their contributions to the team will be fading quickly over the next two to four years.

But - barred injuries and other mishap - the core of the Dutch team that will hopefully present itself at the 2012 European Championships in Poland and Ukraine, will be the core of this team. Stekelenburg, Van der Wiel (22), Heitinga, Mathijsen, De Jong, Sneijder, Van der Vaart, Robben and Van Persie are all roughly 26 and will be of perfect age in 2012.

A number of youngsters had to come from the bench this tournament (some didn't) but apart from Elia and Afellay they failed to impress. Afellay, De Zeeuw, Elia, Huntelaar and Babel are all of an age that will see them able in two and four years time, but Braafheid (who replaced the injured Van Bronckhorst yesterday) and especially Babel will have to hope no youngsters emerge in the coming years to snatch their places in the team.

Eljero Elia is no Arjen Robben, and never will be, but he should be benefiting from the fact that the role of Kuyt (30) will soon be diminishing. He had some good stints this tournament and showed guts in yesterday's final. A real replacement for Kuyt isn't visible on the horizon, although Royston Drenthe and Vernon Anita have similar physical ability. Perhaps Van Persie will be moved to the left, as the experiment with him as a center forward can not be called a success. Perhaps the system will have to be changed all together when Kuyt is no longer there.

Ibrahim Afellay has a longer future than Sneijder and Van der Vaart, as he is younger, but as long as the two midfielders are in the team they stand in Afellay's way. He doesn't have the lungs and the posture to take Van Bommel's place, and out wide he has Elia, Robben and Van Persie in front of him. So replacing Sneijder, Van der Vaart or Van Persie in the middle will be all that's in it for him.

Center back
In terms of quality Van Marwijk (or perhaps a new manager) would have to look at a better center back. Heitinga played a decent tournament, but never excelled and seemed very shaky and nervous at times and is poor building up. There are a few good young center backs in Holland. There is Ron Vlaar of Feyenoord. He had a promising season in the Dutch league, but he is prone to injuries. There was Dirk Marcellis (moved to AZ this summer), but injuries and lack of form have cost him his place in the squad. A third candidate could also be Glenn Loovens of Celtic, but at age 26 he has not yet established himself anywhere and seems only in for a role as substitute. Only when Joris Mathijsen (30) were to leave the team as well Loovens might get closer.

The biggest worry for Van Marwijk however will be to replace Mark van Bommel. He might stay on another year, but come the summer of 2012 he'll be 35 and should no longer be a starter. Demy de Zeeuw seems the most logical replacement. He has developed well at Ajax and can handle the level, as he showed against Brazil and in a number of friendlies and qualifiers. But De Zeeuw is not of the level of Van Bommel yet and might never reach it.

Then there is the vacant position of the left back, now that Giovanni van Bronckhorst has retired. Holland have several good right-backs coming through the ranks, and with Van der Wiel one has already established himself. But the left-back position is up for battle. Main contenders will be Vurnon Anita and Real Madrid's Royston Drenthe. Braafheid could, at 27, be too old in two years time.

Drenthe (23) should be moving to a smaller team if he doesn't become a regular starter for Madrid - no matter how content he is in that role, where he trains everyday with the likes of Ronaldo, Kaka and Higuain. But playing every week for a team in the Bundesliga or the Premier League would do wonders for his chances in Oranje. Both Drenthe and Anita can be used as a midfielder and as a left-back.

Up front Huntelaar (26) will want to finally get a real chance in the team. This tournament his place was taken by a player who is no center forward, and Van Marwijk even thought about taking Van Nistelrooy to South Africa. It shows the Dutch coaches have little faith in Huntelaar bringing them goals, even though he has a great average and scored one in the few minutes he got in South Africa.

Behind Huntelaar there is no magnificent young center forward emerging. Not one that will be ready to carry the Dutch offense in two or even four years. There are some very young ones who look promising, but Castaignos of Feyenoord is only 17 and is yet to prove if he is even of Eredivisie level. Van Wolfswinkel (20) of Utrecht just doesn't look the real deal. There is Jeremain Lens, who was in the preliminary squad, but we don't see him earning himself a move to the Premier League or the Bundesliga any time soon.

Bleak
There are several more young players (Pieters, Brama, Wijnaldum, Fer, Siem and Luuk de Jong, De Guzman, Strootman, Bruma) who might have the potential to grow to a level that makes them worthy of a place in the Dutch team. But among the group ranging between 18 and 23 the real big (Bergkamp, Robben) player doesn't seem to be there.

Of Dennis Bergkamp, Frank de Boer and Arjen Robben it was clear what their potential was when they came through the ranks. At 18 or 19 every experts knew these players would end up with a big European club. The same goes for Sneijder and De Jong. But looking at the current young talents in the Netherlands it's not really there.

Perhaps the generation of Sneijder can hold out for another four years and provide us with some success in the next two tournaments. But after that the Dutch future looks a little bleak.

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So let's go wild and draw up a possible starting line up for Holland's first match at Euro 2012 (you can come back in two years time and see how well - or bad - we did ...)