Bank analyses: "Holland will come third, England to triumph in South Africa"
Thursday 20 May 2010
Financial analysts at JP Morgan
have crunched the numbers and come up with a bold conclusion
for the coming World Cup: Holland will finish third
in the World Cup.
On the 11th of July it will be
England to lift the World Cup after they have beaten
Spain in the final. It would be the first Cup that England
win since 1966.
Matthew Burgess and Marco Dion
made the claim this morning, as an illustration of how
'Quant methodology' (the use of mathematical data to
evaluate investment opportunities) can be applied to
the real world.
Two JP Morgan analysts, Matthew
Burgess and Marco Dion took mathematical models created
to assess stocks, and instead plugged in data on Fifa
rankings, historical football results, and the latest
bookmakers' odds. And despite concern over the state
of Wayne Rooney's groin the pair predicted in a note
to City investors that the Three Lions would maul Spain
in the final on 11 July, with Holland coming third.
"Having developed a rather
successful Quant Model over the years, we intend to
introduce it to our readers and also use its methodology
to apply it to a fruitful field for statistics: Football
and the World Cup," they wrote.
JP Morgan added that they believe
Brazil to be the strongest team taking part in the tournament.
However, due to the fixture schedule, their model predicts
overall victory for England.
Based on today's odds at Betfair,
England are third favourite to lift the trophy, with
Spain the punters' top pick ahead of Brazil.
Burgess and Dion also admitted
that their work should be taken "with a pinch of
salt", but insisted that the upcoming World Cup
was "an ideal opportunity to light-heartedly explain
quantitative techniques and demystify the typical Quant
framework."
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